-The latest signals coming from Spain point towards even lower producer prices. The reasons why are to be found in a series of factors:
- Recent rains in Spain (that are expected to continue) revive hopes for a good harvest in the Iberian Peninsula for 2018/19.
- Olive oil consumption in the country is declining (about 10%), in favor of seed oils (sunflower seed oil etc.), even though retail olive oil prices are under great pressure (3.60 - 3.80 €/lt is a normal price for extra virgin olive oil). Let's compare this situation to Greece, where retail prices are flying high.
- The Spanish have to speed up selling their stock, especially when it has to do with olive oils of inferior quality. Therefore, they will have to offer more attractive prices than their competitors from Greece, Tunisia etc.
- These developments are no surprise since they were to be expected since 2-3 weeks ago. That is why we warned that it would be a fatal mistake if the market didn't receive a steady supply of olive oil.
The 2017/18 crop year has still a long way to go.